A Phase I, Multicenter, Open-Label, Multi-Part, Dose-escalation Study of RAD1901 in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Estrogen Receptor Positive and HER2-Negative Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerpatients mustadvancedher2
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforeendocrinefirst doseefficacyendometrial
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase IB Study to Evaluate RAD1901 on the Availability of Estrogen Receptor Binding Sites in Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT02650817 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 34% of active trials completed
• A First-in-Human Study of D-0502 Alone and in Combination With Palbociclib in Women With Advanced or Metastatic ER-Positive and HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT03471663 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials completed
• Phase 3 Trial of Elacestrant Versus Standard of Care for the Treatment of ER+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03778931 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 59% of active trials completed
• A Study of R1507 in Combination With Letrozole in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT00796107 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 40% of active trials terminated
• Phase 1, First-in-Human Study of RAD140 in Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer NCT03088527 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.