Phase 1, First-in-Human Study of RAD140 in Postmenopausal Women With Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2020-09-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticchemotherapyradiationher2
  Phrases that lowered it: drugevaluate thepharmacokineticto evaluatetestosterone
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase I, Multicenter, Open-Label, Multi-Part, Dose-escalation Study of RAD1901 in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Estrogen Receptor Positive and HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT02338349 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• ZK 230211 in Postmenopausal Woman With Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00555919 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Hormone Receptor Positive Disease Across Solid Tumor Types: A Phase I Study of Single-Agent Hormone Blockade and Combination Approaches With Targeted Agents to Provide Synergy and Overcome Resistance NCT01197170 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 46% of active trials completed
• Estrogen in Postmenopausal Women With ER Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer After Failure of Sequential Endocrine Therapy NCT00661531 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 58% of active trials terminated
• A Phase 3 Comparative Study of TAP-144-SR(6M) in Postoperative and Hormone Therapy-naïve Patients With Premenopausal Breast Cancer NCT01546649 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 14% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.