Phase 3 Trial of Elacestrant Versus Standard of Care for the Treatment of ER+/HER2- Advanced Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-08-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancermetastaticher2chemotherapydisease
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetymaleefficacy andsafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 11534 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 72.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Study Assessing the Efficacy and Safety of Alpelisib Plus Fulvestrant in Men and Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Breast Cancer Which Progressed on or After Aromatase Inhibitor Treatment. NCT02437318 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
• A Study of E7090 as Monotherapy and in Combination With Other Anticancer Agents in Participants With Estrogen Receptor Positive (ER+) and Human Epidermal Growth Receptor 2 Negative (HER2-) Recurrent/Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT04572295 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• CDK4/6-inhibitor or Chemotherapy, in Combination with ENDOcrine Therapy, for Advanced Breast Cancer / KENDO NCT03227328 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• A Phase I, Multicenter, Open-Label, Multi-Part, Dose-escalation Study of RAD1901 in Postmenopausal Women With Advanced Estrogen Receptor Positive and HER2-Negative Breast Cancer NCT02338349 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
• Palbociclib (PD-0332991) Combined With Fulvestrant In Hormone Receptor+ HER2-Negative Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Failure (PALOMA-3) NCT01942135 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.