QUILT 3.071: NANT Colorectal Cancer (CRC) Vaccine

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2019-08-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticsubjectcolorectal cancertherapysubjects with
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccinescreeninglymphomathe investigatorwilling to
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 297607 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 11 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 9 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 52777 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.9% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Regorafenib + Panitumumab for Colorectal Cancers NCT02199223 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials terminated
• Regorafenib in Combination With TAS-102 in Subjects With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Who Have Progressed After Standard Therapy NCT03305913 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 65% of active trials completed
• Regorafenib, Ipilimumab and Nivolumab for the Treatment of Chemotherapy Resistant Microsatellite Stable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT04362839 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• AVELUMAB and CETUXIMAB and mFOLFOXIRI as Initial Therapy for Unresectable Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients NCT04513951 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
• ARQ 197 in Combination With Chemotherapy in Patients With Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT01075048 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.