Linear Energy Transfer (LET)-Optimized Intensity Modulated Proton Therapy (IMPT) as a Component of Definitive Chemoradiation for Newly Diagnosed Squamous Cell Carcinoma of the Anal Canal: a Feasibility Trial

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 24% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-03. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientradiationcancerchemotherapyprior
  Phrases that lowered it: cd4hivwithin 30days priorexamination
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 27.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 85851 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12205 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Imiquimod, Fluorouracil, or Observation in Treating HIV-Positive Patients With High-Grade Anal Squamous Skin Lesions NCT02059499 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Vectibix for the Treatment of Anal Cancer NCT01285778 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 77% of active trials completed
• Nimotuzumab With Radiotherapy in the Treatment of Anal Canal Cancers NCT01382745 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials terminated
• Radiation Therapy, Cisplatin, Fluorouracil, and Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Anal Cancer NCT00955240 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Topical MTS-01 for Dermatitis During Radiation and Chemotherapy for Anal Cancer NCT01324141 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.