A Study to Determine Safety of Durvalumab After Sequential Chemo Radiation in Patients With Unresectable Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: radiationchemotherapyplatinumpatients mustrheumatoid
  Phrases that lowered it: hepatitischronicipparticipantspatients who
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 130 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 133 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1544 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 92.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 2394 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Trial With Chemotherapy, Immunotherapy, and Radiotherapy for Patients With Newly Diagnosed Stage IV Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04951115 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• Durvalumab and Chemotherapy Induction Followed by Durvalumab and Radiotherapy in Large Volume Stage III NSCLC NCT04765709 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials terminated
• Radiotherapy With Durvalumab Prior to Surgical Resection for HPV Negative Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT03635164 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials completed
• Chemoradiation Plus Durvalumab Followed by Surgery Followed by Adjuvant Durvalumab in Patients With Surgically Resectable Stage III (N2) Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03871153 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Immunotherapy in Patient With Poor General Condition NCT04108026 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.