Durvalumab and Chemotherapy Induction Followed by Durvalumab and Radiotherapy in Large Volume Stage III NSCLC

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapycancerpatientssurgeryradiotherapy
  Phrases that lowered it: 20femaleclinicalmeannormal
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 21.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 19385 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 163413 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 6 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Determine Safety of Durvalumab After Sequential Chemo Radiation in Patients With Unresectable Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03693300 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials completed
• Safety & Efficacy of Consolidative Hypofractionated Radiation Therapy for Boosting Residual Lung Cancer With Durvalumab NCT04748419 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials terminated
• A Trial With Chemotherapy, Immunotherapy, and Radiotherapy for Patients With Newly Diagnosed Stage IV Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04951115 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• ADMIRAL Trial: Adaptive Mediastinal Radiation With Chemo-Immunotherapy NCT04372927 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Durvalumab Followed by Chemoradiation and Consolidation Durvalumab for Stage III Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04364048 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.