PROACTIVE: Preventing Acute/Chronic GVHD With TocIlizumab Combined With GVHD Prophylaxis Post allogEneic Transplant

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 23% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: gvhdhlaallogeneicdonorcell
  Phrases that lowered it: leukemiaamlmyeloidevaluate theopen label
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 69.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 44 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 9.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 343126 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 71345 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Tacrolimus/Methotrexate and Tocilizumab to Prevent Acute Graft-Versus-Host Disease (AGVD) After Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant NCT02206035 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 62% of active trials completed
• Novel Approaches for Graft-versus-Host Disease Prevention Compared to Contemporary Controls (BMT CTN 1203) NCT02208037 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials completed
• TAC/MTX vs. TAC/MMF/PTCY for Prevention of Graft-versus-Host Disease and Microbiome and Immune Reconstitution Study (BMT CTN 1703/1801) NCT03959241 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
• Post Transplant Cyclophosphamide (Cytoxan) for GvHD Prophylaxis NCT02065154 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Tacrolimus and Thymoglobulin, as GvHD Prophylaxis in Patients Undergoing Related Donor HCT NCT01246206 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.