Trial of Trametinib and Ponatinib in Patients With KRAS Mutant Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-02-04. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: smallof studylungstudy drugcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: patients whoevaluate theto evaluatethe investigatorparticipants
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 127 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 25.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 505 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Trial of Vemurafenib and Sorafenib in Pancreatic Cancer NCT05068752 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Study of Selumetinib in Patients With Previously Treated or Untreated Advanced/Metastatic NSCLC NCT01783197 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• A Phase I/Ib Study of MEK162, a MEK Inhibitor, in Combination With Carboplatin and Pemetrexed in Patients With Non-squamous Carcinoma of the Lung NCT02185690 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Trametinib in Patients With Advanced Neurofibromatosis Type 1 (NF1)-Mutant Non-small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03232892 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Efficacy and Safety of Momelotinib Combined With Trametinib in Adults With Metastatic KRAS-mutated Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) Who Have Failed Platinum-Based Chemotherapy Preceded by a Dose-finding Lead-in Phase NCT02258607 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 63% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.