Fractionated Docetaxel and Radium 223 in Metastatic Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 11% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.0% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: to determinetherapydetermine thecancerra
  Phrases that lowered it: rangeuppermalejudgednormal
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 17.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: sequential (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 82.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 26043 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 6313 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Alpharadin With Docetaxel in Patients With Bone Metastasis From Castration-Resistant Prostate Cancer (CRPC) NCT01106352 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• A Biomarker Study of Standard-of-care Radium-223 Chloride for Metastatic Castration-resistant Prostate Cancer NCT02346526 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• Radium(223) Dichloride (Alpharadin) in Castration-Resistant (Hormone-Refractory) Prostate Cancer Patients With Bone Metastases NCT01618370 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• Phase I Dose-escalation Study of Fractionated 177Lu-PSMA-617 for Progressive Metastatic CRPC NCT03042468 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Radium-223 Dichloride and Abiraterone Acetate Compared to Placebo and Abiraterone Acetate for Men With Cancer of the Prostate When Medical or Surgical Castration Does Not Work and When the Cancer Has Spread to the Bone, Has Not Been Treated With Chemotherapy and is Causing no or Only Mild Symptoms NCT02043678 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.