Evaluation of the Vasoconstriction Properties of MC2-01 Cream
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2018-11-23, after 2018-11-05 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2018-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
-
Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: scalepriordiseasephasecontact
Phrases that lowered it: the trialvisithealthyfemalesubjects -
Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 50.2% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Disease area, psychiatry: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 7 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 50 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- Yes (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 2 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 8 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 34378 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7378 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 50.2% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- betamethasone dipropionate, butyrate, calcipotriene, clobetasol, clobetasol propionate, desonide, hydrocortisone butyrate, triamcinolone acetonide
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Investigation of Topical SB705498 on Healthy Volunteers NCT01673529 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 11% of active trials completed
- A Phase I Study to Assess the Safety and Tolerability of Topical CRx-197 Formulations in Healthy Volunteers NCT00721331 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- Assess the Efficacy and Safety in Volunteers of DCF100, TIB200 and SPR300 vs. Placebo and Control(s) in a UV Pain Model NCT02666846 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 1% of active trials completed
- Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetic of Single and 14 Day Repeat Topical Application of GSK1940029 NCT01938482 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
- Evaluation of the Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of AH-001 Following Topical Single and Multiple Ascending Dose Administration NCT06927960 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.