KD025 in Subjects With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 6% of the time (240 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-02-17, after 2019-06-26 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “enrollment”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-02-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomapriorchemotherapysitu
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluateparticipantsmaledrug -
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 100 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 5 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 5 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 100 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 4 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 2 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 1 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 100% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 100% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- belumosudil
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Efficacy and Safety of Belumosudil in Subjects With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT04680975 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated
- A Phase 2, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Belumosudil in Subjects With Moderate/Severe Chronic Plaque Psoriasis NCT02852967 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed
- Effectiveness and Safety of SAR156597 in Treating Diffuse Systemic Sclerosis NCT02921971 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 85% of active trials completed
- Proof of Mechanism Study of GSK2330811 in Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT03041025 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
- A Multicenter Trial to Evaluate the Efficacy, Safety, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of HZN-825 in Patients With Diffuse Cutaneous Systemic Sclerosis NCT04781543 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.