Nivolumab Combined With Chemoradiotherapy Sparing Concurrent Cisplatin in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-03-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerrequiringcarcinomaheartmyocardial
  Phrases that lowered it: singleevaluate theclinical trialto evaluatejoint
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 155 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 161 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 96.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.1% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 9767 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab Plus Gemcitabine in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma-HN17-11 NCT06440187 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
• NIvolumab COmbination With Standard First-line Chemotherapy and Radiotherapy in Locally Advanced Stage IIIA/B Non-Small Cell Lung Carcinoma NCT02434081 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
• De-Escalation Therapy for Human Papillomavirus Negative Disease NCT03944915 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab in Treating Patients With Recurrent and/or Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Cancer NCT02339558 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
• Concurrent Radiotherapy Following Induction Chemoimmunotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT07015489 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.