Nivolumab Plus Gemcitabine in Patients With Recurrent or Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma-HN17-11

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,198 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancerdiseasegemcitabineheart
  Phrases that lowered it: patientspatient withaccordingperiod20
• Minimum age: 20 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 30.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.1% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 207 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 468 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13920 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Phase III Trial Evaluating Chemotherapy and Immunotherapy for Advanced Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) Patients NCT02578641 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 45% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab, Carboplatin, and Paclitaxel in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT03342911 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Testing the Addition of an Anti-cancer Immune Therapy Drug (Nivolumab) to the Usual Chemotherapy Treatment (Cisplatin or Carboplatin With Gemcitabine) for Recurrent or Metastatic Nasopharyngeal Cancer NCT04458909 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
• Nivolumab Combined With Chemoradiotherapy Sparing Concurrent Cisplatin in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma NCT03984357 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 42% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab + Chemoradiation in Stage II-IVB Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma (NPC) NCT03267498 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.