Celecoxib Through Surgery and Radiation Therapy for the Treatment of Advanced Head and Neck Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 15% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-04-26. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: painradiationstagecancersubject has
  Phrases that lowered it: asthmatrialmmhgviral loadsubjects
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 20.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 67.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 90817 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 280 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 85 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 8535 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Adjuvant De-Escalated Radiation + Adjuvant Nivolumab for Intermediate-High Risk P16+ Oropharynx Cancer NCT03715946 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
• LUX-Head&Neck 3: Afatinib (BIBW2992) Versus Methotrexate for the Treatment of Recurrent and/or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Cancer After Platinum Based Chemotherapy NCT01856478 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 15% of active trials completed
• Gabapentin, Methadone, and Oxycodone With or Without Venlafaxine Hydrochloride in Managing Pain in Participants With Stage II-IV Squamous Cell Head and Neck Cancer Undergoing Chemoradiation Therapy NCT03574792 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• To Determine the Safety of Regorafenib, Hydroxychloroquine, and Entinostat Metastatic Colorectal Cancer NCT03215264 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 82% of active trials completed
• Capecitabine and Celecoxib in Patients With Solid Cancers That Have Been Previously Treated With Standard Therapies NCT01705106 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.