Neoadjuvant Afatinib Therapy for Potentially Resectable Stage III EGFR Mutation-Positive Lung Adenocarcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-08-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: stagesurgerytherapythe patientlung
  Phrases that lowered it: open labeland safetyfemaleefficacy andmale
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 22.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 4979 (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The ATTAIN Study: A Therapeutic Trial of Afatinib In the Neoadjuvant Setting NCT02271906 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• Afatinib in NSCLC With HER2 Mutation NCT02369484 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials completed
• Afatinib in NSCLC With HER2 Mutation NCT02597946 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Induction Therapy With Intercalated Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitor (TKI) and Chemotherapy in NSCLC With Activating Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Mutation in Stages II-IIIB NCT02326285 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 87% of active trials terminated
• Afatinib and Cetuximab in Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor (EGFR) Exon 20 Insertion Positive Non-small-cell Lung Cancer NCT03727724 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.