A Dose-range Finding Study of MAA868 in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 14% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 20% of the time (389 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-03-08. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: placeboheartascendingcontrolledtraumatic
  Phrases that lowered it: pharmacokineticsthe pharmacokineticevaluate theto evaluatestudy to
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: double (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Evaluating Safety and Tolerability of YM150 Compared to Warfarin in Subjects With Atrial Fibrillation NCT00938730 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 38% of active trials completed
• Resolution of Left Atrial-Appendage Thrombus - Effects of Dabigatran in Patients With AF NCT02256683 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 61% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Study of the Safety, Tolerability and Pilot Efficacy of Oral Factor Xa Inhibitor Betrixaban Compared to Warfarin NCT00742859 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study on OMT-28 in Maintenance of Sinus Rhythm in Patients With Persistent Atrial Fibrillation (AF) NCT03906799 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 48% of active trials completed
• Evaluate the Pharmacokinetics and Safety of MK-4448 in Participants With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation or Atrial Flutter NCT01229254 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.