Efficacy of Neoadjuvant PD-1 Blockade Plus Chemotherapy for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-01-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: squamous cellcell carcinomahepatitisstagekidney
  Phrases that lowered it: diseasesthe efficacyaccordingclinicalpatients who
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 13 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 18 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Concurrent Radiotherapy Following Induction Chemoimmunotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT07015489 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• Study of Anti-PD-L1 in Combination With Chemo(Radio)Therapy for Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04568200 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
• Paclitaxel, Cisplatin, and Radiation Therapy With or Without Cetuximab in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT00655876 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 55% of active trials completed
• Radiation Therapy and Chemotherapy, With or Without Cetuximab, Followed by Surgery in Treating Patients With Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer That Can Be Removed by Surgery NCT01107639 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 31% of active trials completed
• A Feasibility Trial of Nivolumab With Neoadjuvant CF or DCF Therapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Carcinoma NCT03914443 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.