Study of Anti-PD-L1 in Combination With Chemo(Radio)Therapy for Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2024-01-01, after 2020-06-19 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-01-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: heartcancertransplantationcelldisease
Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andthe efficacysafety ofevaluate the -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 2.0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Sponsor's past trials: 51 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Maximum age: 75 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 123145 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- single (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 75 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 51 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 2.0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 109 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 123145 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 20317 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 93.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.0% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- carboplatin, durvalumab, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab Plus Chemotherapy for Resectable Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT05302011 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Study of Anti-PD-L1 in Combination With Chemo(Radio)Therapy for Oesophageal Cancer NCT02735239 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 98% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Neoadjuvant PD-1 Blockade Plus Chemotherapy for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04225364 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- PDL-1 Targeting in Resectable Oesophageal Cancer NCT03087864 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- A Feasibility Trial of Nivolumab With Neoadjuvant CF or DCF Therapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Carcinoma NCT03914443 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 16% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.