Study of Anti-PD-L1 in Combination With Chemo(Radio)Therapy for Oesophageal Cancer
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 32% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (851 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2022-06-16, after 2016-06-24 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-06-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: subjectchemotherapycancerbrainmetastatic
Phrases that lowered it: clinicalto evaluateevaluate thelaboratorysafety of -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 26.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 6 (lowers risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 23.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 29016 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
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Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
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Keywords listed: 7 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1/2 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 6 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 7 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 38 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 26.3% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 3 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 9 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 171196 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 29016 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 94.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 23.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- capecitabine, carboplatin, docetaxel, durvalumab, fluorouracil, leucovorin, oxaliplatin, paclitaxel
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Association of Radiochemotherapy and Immunotherapy for the Treatment of Unresectable Oesophageal caNcer NCT03777813 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Study of Anti-PD-L1 in Combination With Chemo(Radio)Therapy for Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04568200 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 27% of active trials completed
- Efficacy of Neoadjuvant PD-1 Blockade Plus Chemotherapy for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04225364 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Durvalumab Alone or in Combination With Novel Agents in Resectable Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03794544 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- A Study of Durvalumab (MEDI4736) in Esophageal Cancer NCT02639065 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.