A Study to Evaluate Safety and Tolerability of Aducanumab in Participants With Alzheimer's Disease Who Had Previously Participated in the Aducanumab Studies 221AD103, 221AD301, 221AD302 and 221AD205

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 29% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (734 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: alzheimercognitivekeymriclinically significant
  Phrases that lowered it: participantparticipantsperiodweeksreceived
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 19.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 50 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 2.9% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 31 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, psychiatry: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 275 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 35 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Verify the Clinical Benefit of Aducanumab in Participants With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT05310071 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials terminated
• 221AD301 Phase 3 Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) in Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02477800 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• 221AD302 Phase 3 Study of Aducanumab (BIIB037) in Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT02484547 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 95% of active trials terminated
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, and Efficacy of Lecanemab in Subjects With Early Alzheimer's Disease NCT01767311 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• A Study of Aducanumab in Participants With Mild Cognitive Impairment Due to Alzheimer's Disease or With Mild Alzheimer's Disease Dementia to Evaluate the Safety of Continued Dosing in Participants With Asymptomatic Amyloid-Related Imaging Abnormalities NCT03639987 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.