Ipilimumab, Nivolumab, Tocilizumab and Radiation in Pretreated Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-11-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: pancreaticchemotherapyadvancedmetastaticcancer
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsdrugparticipantclinicalinvestigator
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 112569 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 26337 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 9 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Nivolumab, Ipilimumab and Chemoradiation in Pancreatic Cancer. NCT04247165 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab With Ipilimumab Combined With TGFβ-15 Peptide Vaccine and Radiotherapy for Pancreatic Cancer NCT05721846 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
• Immunotherapy Combined With Radiation and Influenza Vaccine for Pancreatic Cancer. NCT05116917 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Combination With Radiation Therapy in Pancreatic Cancer or Biliary Tract Cancer Patients NCT02866383 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab and Gemcitabine Hydrochloride in Treating Patients With Stage III-IV or Recurrent Pancreatic Cancer That Cannot Be Removed by Surgery NCT01473940 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.