Nivolumab With Ipilimumab Combined With TGFβ-15 Peptide Vaccine and Radiotherapy for Pancreatic Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: tumorradiationmetastaticchemotherapyundergo
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantsubjectssingledrug
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 2 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 90.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 107442 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13714 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Immunotherapy Combined With Radiation and Influenza Vaccine for Pancreatic Cancer. NCT05116917 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 91% of active trials terminated
• Ipilimumab, Nivolumab, Tocilizumab and Radiation in Pretreated Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT04258150 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
• Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Combination With Radiation Therapy in Pancreatic Cancer or Biliary Tract Cancer Patients NCT02866383 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
• Nivolumab, Ipilimumab and Chemoradiation in Pancreatic Cancer. NCT04247165 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Tailored ImmunoTherapy Approach With Nivolumab in Subjects With Metastatic or Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma NCT02917772 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.