Immunotherapy Combined With Radiation and Influenza Vaccine for Pancreatic Cancer.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 26% for any early termination, 13% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-10-19, after 2021-11-05 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-10-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: radiationchemotherapytumormetastaticcancer
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantinfluenzadisorderdrug -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.4% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 26.7% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
-
Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13276 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
-
Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 11 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- not applicable (typical: randomized)
- Design
- single group (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 3 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 70 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 11.4% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 11 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 2 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 86380 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13276 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.7% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 26.7% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, infectious disease, respiratory, digestive, endocrine
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Nivolumab With Ipilimumab Combined With TGFβ-15 Peptide Vaccine and Radiotherapy for Pancreatic Cancer NCT05721846 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- Ipilimumab, Nivolumab, Tocilizumab and Radiation in Pretreated Patients With Advanced Pancreatic Cancer NCT04258150 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials terminated
- Immune Checkpoint Inhibition in Combination With Radiation Therapy in Pancreatic Cancer or Biliary Tract Cancer Patients NCT02866383 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed
- Single Agent and Combined Inhibition After Allogeneic Stem Cell Transplant NCT02846376 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials terminated
- Nivolumab, Ipilimumab and Chemoradiation in Pancreatic Cancer. NCT04247165 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.