Oral Vinorelbine or Capecitabine Combined With Trastuzumab as Adjuvant Treatment for Patients With Lymph Node Negative, HER-2 Positive and Small Tumor Size Breast Cancer (ORCHID)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 18% for any early termination, 12% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-04-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancercapecitabinesituadjuvantphase ii
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyparticipantshypertensionaminotransferasepressure
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 73 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 100551 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 14649 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 83.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 70 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Phase II Neoadjuvant Trial of Trastuzumab in Combination With Dose-Dense ABI-007 (Abraxane™) NCT00503750 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 99% of active trials completed
• MEtronomic TrEatment Option in Advanced bReast cAncer NCT02954055 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed
• Studying the Benefits of Adjuvant Sequential vs. Combined Taxane Based Chemotherapy, Followed by Different Biological Treatment Strategies in Early, HER2-positive Breast Cancer NCT00670878 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Capecitabine and Bevacizumab ± Vinorelbine in Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT00868634 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
• Oral Vinorelbine in Combination With Trastuzumab for Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT01242449 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.