Trial of COVID-19 Outpatient Treatment in Individuals With Risk Factors for Aggravation
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 10% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (81 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-10-22, after 2020-07-29 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-22. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: therapytransplantfailureheartsolid
Phrases that lowered it: evaluate theto evaluatethe trial19bmi -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Minimum age: 50 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 56 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 7.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Number of arms: 4 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor's past trials: 237 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 4 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 1 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 5 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 50 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 237 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 15.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 56 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 24096 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 4205 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 84.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 7.5% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- infectious disease
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ciclesonide, interferon, telmisartan
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Anti-Coronavirus Therapies to Prevent Progression of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Trial NCT04324463 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
- Non-inferiority Trial on Treatments in Early COVID-19 NCT05321394 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
- COVID-19 Prevention and Treatment in Cancer; a Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomised Trial; NCT04534725 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- A Study of LY3819253 (LY-CoV555) and LY3832479 (LY-CoV016) in Participants With Mild to Moderate COVID-19 Illness NCT04427501 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Safety and Tolerability of Emricasan in Symptomatic Outpatients Diagnosed With Mild-COVID-19 NCT04803227 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 69% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.