Neoadjuvant Immunotherapy in Brain Metastases

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 34% for any early termination, 24% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-06-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: breast cancercarcinomametastasespatientcell
  Phrases that lowered it: ovarianefficacypatients withpatients whofemales
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Responsible party: sponsor investigator (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, neurology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 12980 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, respiratory: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Trial of Combination Tumor Treating Fields (TTF; Optune), Nivolumab Plus/Minus Ipilimumab for Recurrent Glioblastoma NCT03430791 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated
• An Investigational Immuno-therapy Study to Evaluate Safety and Effectiveness in Patients With Melanoma That Has Spread to the Brain, Treated With Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, Followed by Nivolumab by Itself NCT02320058 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 74% of active trials completed
• Stereotactic Radiation and Nivolumab in the Management of Metastatic Breast Cancer Brain Metastases NCT03807765 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• Pembrolizumab Plus Bevacizumab for Treatment of Brain Metastases in Metastatic Melanoma or Non-small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT02681549 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Ipilimumab Combined With a Stereotactic Radiosurgery in Melanoma Patients With Brain Metastases NCT02662725 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.