A Single Arm Study Evaluating the Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of Ofatumumab in Patients With Relapsing Multiple Sclerosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 16% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-10-21. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapystablemriivinfusion
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantsingledrugmultiple
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 1341 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 150 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 16.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.8% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Ocrelizumab in Participants With Relapsing Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) Who Have Had a Suboptimal Response to an Adequate Course of Disease-Modifying Treatment (DMT) NCT02637856 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Investigating Mechanism of Action of DAC HYP in the Treatment of High-Inflammatory Multiple Sclerosis (MS) NCT01143441 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of Alemtuzumab in Pediatric Patients With RRMS With Disease Activity on Prior DMT NCT03368664 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials terminated
• Natalizumab (BG00002, Tysabri) Study in Japanese Participants With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (RRMS) NCT01440101 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials completed
• Phase 1/2 Study to Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of ATA188 in Subjects With Progressive Multiple Sclerosis NCT03283826 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.