Study of ATI-450 in Patients With Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndrome (CAPS)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 22% for any early termination, 5% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (369 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-02-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: therapycellspatientpatientsuln
  Phrases that lowered it: screeningvisitfemaleinvestigatethe investigator
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Canakinumab Administered for 6 Months (24 Weeks) in Japanese Patients With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes Followed by an Extension Phase NCT00991146 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of ACZ885 in Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT00685373 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01302860 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Clinical Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics and Pharmacodynamics of ZYIL1 in Subjects With Cryopyrin Associated Periodic Syndromes (CAPS) NCT05186051 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 24% of active trials completed
• Canakinumab to Treat Neonatal-Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT00770601 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.