Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2014-11-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 33.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 253 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: diseasediagnosis ofassesssyndromeactive
  Phrases that lowered it: efficacy andpatients whovisitand safetysafety of
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 0.08 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: 5 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 268 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety of ACZ885 in Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT00685373 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• The Safety and Efficacy of Canakinumab in Patients Aged 4 Years or Older Diagnosed With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes (CAPS) in Canada NCT01105507 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Canakinumab Administered for 6 Months (24 Weeks) in Japanese Patients With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes Followed by an Extension Phase NCT00991146 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01576367 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study of ATI-450 in Patients With Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndrome (CAPS) NCT04524858 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.