The Safety and Efficacy of Canakinumab in Patients Aged 4 Years or Older Diagnosed With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes (CAPS) in Canada

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 12% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2012-05-12. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.5% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: potentialmethod ofof childbearingpatientspatient
  Phrases that lowered it: kgvisitbodythe screeningthe trial
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 28.6% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 264 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 4 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01302860 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01576367 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Canakinumab Administered for 6 Months (24 Weeks) in Japanese Patients With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes Followed by an Extension Phase NCT00991146 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of ACZ885 in Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT00685373 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• Study to Evaluate the Safety, Tolerability, Efficacy and Pharmacokinetics of JTE-162 in Subjects With Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndrome (CAPS) NCT07247266 · started 2026 · scored riskier than 20% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.