Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2015-10-13. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: extensioncompletedand tolerabilitytolerability ofsyndrome
  Phrases that lowered it: patientsefficacy andand safetythe efficacyhaving
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 13.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 276 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.7% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 97.5% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 349 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 1 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Keywords listed: 14 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 4 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 79 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• The Safety and Efficacy of Canakinumab in Patients Aged 4 Years or Older Diagnosed With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes (CAPS) in Canada NCT01105507 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety of ACZ885 in Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT00685373 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 17% of active trials completed
• An Extention Study of Safety of Canakinumab in Japanese Patients With Periodic Fever Syndromes NCT02911857 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 25% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01302860 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• A Study of Canakinumab in Patients With Systemic Juvenile Idiopathic Arthritis or Hereditary Periodic Fevers Who Participated in the CACZ885G2301E1, CACZ885G2306 or CACZ885N2301 Studies NCT02334748 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.