Efficacy and Safety of ACZ885 in Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 10% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started 2008–2014: scored by a model trained without any trial from its start year, so its own outcome was never used.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2010-04-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Sponsor's past termination rate: 3.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: patientstherapypatientpriormonoclonal
  Phrases that lowered it: visitscreeninginvestigatormaledosing
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 218 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 3 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 300 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Keywords listed: 13 (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01302860 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed
• Efficacy and Safety Study of Canakinumab Administered for 6 Months (24 Weeks) in Japanese Patients With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes Followed by an Extension Phase NCT00991146 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
• Efficacy, Safety and Tolerability of ACZ885 in Pediatric Patients With the Following Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes: Familial Cold Autoinflammatory Syndrome, Muckle-Wells Syndrome, or Neonatal Onset Multisystem Inflammatory Disease NCT01576367 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 93% of active trials completed
• Study of ATI-450 in Patients With Cryopyrin-Associated Periodic Syndrome (CAPS) NCT04524858 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• The Safety and Efficacy of Canakinumab in Patients Aged 4 Years or Older Diagnosed With Cryopyrin-associated Periodic Syndromes (CAPS) in Canada NCT01105507 · started 2010 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.