A Study of Atezolizumab Plus Tiragolumab in Combination With Paclitaxel and Cisplatin Compared With Paclitaxel and Cisplatin as First-Line Treatment in Participants With Unresectable Locally Advanced, Unresectable Recurrent, or Metastatic Esophageal Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 14% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-08-28, after 2020-10-30 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-08-28. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: metastaticstemplacebotransplantationpaclitaxel
Phrases that lowered it: participantsand safetyarmefficacy andevaluate the -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past termination rate: 9.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 109 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Sponsor's past trials: 1166 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 95.3% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 20.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 117959 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 17369 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 4 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 1166 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 9.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 109 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 4 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 117959 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 17369 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 95.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 20.4% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- atezolizumab, cisplatin, paclitaxel, tiragolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- A Study of Atezolizumab With or Without Tiragolumab in Participants With Unresectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Whose Cancers Have Not Progressed Following Definitive Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy NCT04543617 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab and Tiragolumab Compared With Durvalumab in Participants With Locally Advanced, Unresectable Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) NCT04513925 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 30% of active trials completed
- A Study of Tiragolumab in Combination With Atezolizumab Plus Pemetrexed and Carboplatin/Cisplatin Versus Pembrolizumab Plus Pemetrexed and Carboplatin/Cisplatin in Participants With Previously Untreated Advanced Non-Squamous Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04619797 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 44% of active trials completed
- Induction Immuno-chemotherapy and Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy With or Without Apatinib in Unresectable, Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT06281886 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 57% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab Plus Carboplatin and Etoposide With or Without Tiragolumab in Patients With Untreated Extensive-Stage Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT04256421 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.