Induction Immuno-chemotherapy and Concurrent Chemoradiotherapy With or Without Apatinib in Unresectable, Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 18% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 26% of the time (3,728 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2026-06-25, after 2024-02-15 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-06-25. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: trastuzumabcancerchemotherapyconcurrentsquamous
Phrases that lowered it: fev1the efficacysafety ofaccordingesophageal -
Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 8.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 185 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 19.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Maximum age: 80 (lowers risk) · Who can join
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Sponsor's past trials: 240 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 245023 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- not given (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 6 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- 80 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 240 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 8.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 185 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 5 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 245023 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 21804 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 19.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, digestive
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- apatinib, capecitabine, cisplatin, paclitaxel, toripalimab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Concurrent Radiotherapy Following Induction Chemoimmunotherapy for Locally Advanced Esophageal Cancer NCT07015489 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
- Erbitux Combined With Chemo-radiotherapy in Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT00815308 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- A Study of Atezolizumab Plus Tiragolumab in Combination With Paclitaxel and Cisplatin Compared With Paclitaxel and Cisplatin as First-Line Treatment in Participants With Unresectable Locally Advanced, Unresectable Recurrent, or Metastatic Esophageal Carcinoma NCT04540211 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 37% of active trials completed
- Neoadjuvant Pembrolizumab Plus Chemotherapy for Resectable Locally Advanced Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT05302011 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
- Study of Tislelizumab in Participants With Resectable Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT04974047 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 29% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.