Immune Checkpoint Inhibition With Lurbinectedin Relapsed/Recurrent SCLC
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 21% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 23% of the time (1,629 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Terminated on 2023-03-24, after 2020-11-23 start.
Reason given by the sponsor: “other”
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-24. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: smallcancercell lungsurgerytherapy
Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipanttrialscreeningvaccine -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 23.6% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
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Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 27.2% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 36 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 13012 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 89.0% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Sponsor's past trials: 199 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
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Collaborators: 2 (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: sequential (raises risk) · Design
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Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
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Drugs with FDA adverse-event history: 3 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 73142 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Allocation
- non randomized (typical: randomized)
- Design
- sequential (typical: parallel)
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 2 (typical: 0)
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 199 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 23.6% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 36 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 3 (typical: 1)
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 73142 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 13012 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 89.0% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 27.2% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cancer, respiratory
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- ipilimumab, lurbinectedin, nivolumab
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Pembrolizumab vs Topotecan in Patients With Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02963090 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
- Lurbinectedin (PM01183) Combined With Pembrolizumab in Small Cell Lung Cancer. NCT04358237 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
- Pembrolizumab and Paclitaxel in Refractory Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT02551432 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
- A Phase I/II Study of Nivolumab, Ipilimumab and Plinabulin in Patients With Recurrent Small Cell Lung Cancer NCT03575793 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials completed
- Nivolumab in Combination With Chemotherapy, or Nivolumab in Combination With Ipilimumab, in Advanced EGFR-Mutant or ALK-Rearranged NSCLC NCT03256136 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 80% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.