Study of NKTR 255 in Combination With Cetuximab in Solid Tumors

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 15% for any early termination, 3% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-03-30. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.9% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 14.0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 8 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: metastaticcancercolorectaldiseasepatients must
  Phrases that lowered it: other protocolopen labelprotocol definedmay applycriteria may
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 81.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Dose Escalation and Cohort Expansion Study of NKTR-214 in Combination With Nivolumab and Other Anti-Cancer Therapies in Patients With Select Advanced Solid Tumors NCT02983045 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed
• A Phase Ib/II Study of BYL719 and Cetuximab in Recurrent or Metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma NCT01602315 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 84% of active trials terminated
• Study of ALE.C04 in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer NCT06054477 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials terminated
• A Trial to Determine the Safety and Anti-tumor Activity Profile of the Combination of Cetuximab and Concomitant Cisplatin Plus 5-Fluorouracil (5-FU) in Subjects With Recurrent and/or Metastatic Squamous Cell Carcinoma in Head and Neck NCT01177956 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 64% of active trials completed
• Combination Study of Urelumab and Cetuximab in Patients With Advanced/Metastatic Colorectal Cancer or Advanced/Metastatic Head and Neck Cancer NCT02110082 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 49% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.