Hetrombopag for Pediatric Patients With Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 13% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 9% of the time (336 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-06-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ulnpriorchronicpatientheart
  Phrases that lowered it: to investigateefficacyclinicalinvestigate thesafety
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 138 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 17 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Number of arms: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 7.2% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor's past trials: 125 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Efficacy and Safety Study of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Thrombocytopenia From Chronic Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT00908037 · started 2009 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Study of a New Medication for Childhood Chronic Immune Thrombocytopenia (ITP), a Blood Disorder of Low Platelet Counts That Can Lead to Bruising Easily, Bleeding Gums, and/or Bleeding Inside the Body. NCT01520909 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 88% of active trials completed
• Multicentre, Randomised Phase III Study of the Efficacy and Safety of Hetrombopag Olamine in Idiopathic Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) Patient NCT03222843 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
• Avatrombopag for the Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Pediatric Subjects With Immune Thrombocytopenia for ≥6 Months NCT04516967 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 18% of active trials completed
• A Long-term Safety Study of Eltrombopag in Pediatric Patients With Chronic Immune (Idiopathic) Thrombocytopenic Purpura (ITP) NCT02201290 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 54% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.