Efficacy and Safety of Botulinum Toxin at Moderate to Severe Glabellar Lines

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 3% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-10-01. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: activephasecontrolledmaximumdouble blind
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andparticipantshealthysafety of
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: not given (lowers risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: 65 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Efficacy Study of ATGC-100 for the Treatment of Moderate to Severe Glabellar Lines in Adult Subjects NCT03970876 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed
• To Compare the Safety and Efficacy of HG-102 With Botox® in the Improvement of Moderate to Severe Glabellar Lines. NCT04944953 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Study to Assess the Adverse Events of Intramuscular Injections of AGN-151586 and OnabotulinumtoxinA in Adult Participants for the Change of Glabellar Lines (GL) NCT06834789 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
• Clinical Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Neuronox and Botox With Moderate to Severe Glabellar Lines NCT03216408 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
• Safety and Efficacy of AbobotulinumtoxinA for the Treatment of Glabellar Lines NCT03736928 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.