To Compare the Safety and Efficacy of HG-102 With Botox® in the Improvement of Moderate to Severe Glabellar Lines.
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 5% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 5% of the time (4,470 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2021-12-16, after 2021-06-11 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2021-12-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: patientsin subjectsmenand clinicaleligible
Phrases that lowered it: efficacymoderate toto compareto severeclinical trial -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Minimum age: 19 (lowers risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 1.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 17.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 4 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
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Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 1 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- double (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 0 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 19 (typical: 18)
- Maximum age
- 65 (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- industry (typical: academic or other)
- Sponsor's past trials
- 9 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 0% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 4 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 59428 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 7162 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 17.3% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 1.6% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- none of the 14 tracked areas
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- botulinum toxin type a
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Phase 2 of HU-045 in Glabellar Lines NCT05298449 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 7% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of Botulinum Toxin at Moderate to Severe Glabellar Lines NCT04830345 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 2% of active trials completed
- The Safety and Efficacy Study of HU-014 Versus Botox® in Subject With Moderate to Severe Glabellar Lines NCT02961673 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
- A Study to Assess the Adverse Events of Intramuscular Injections of AGN-151586 and OnabotulinumtoxinA in Adult Participants for the Change of Glabellar Lines (GL) NCT06834789 · started 2025 · scored riskier than 12% of active trials completed
- To Evaluate the Safety and Efficacy of Botulax® Are Not Inferior to Those of Botox® in the Treatment of Glabellar Lines NCT01791920 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 5% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.