Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of NS-018 Compared to BAT in Patients With Myelofibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 21% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 25% of the time (96 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-05-16. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withheartuncontrolledmyocardialprior
  Phrases that lowered it: and safetyefficacy andsafety ofthe efficacyaccording
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 0% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: single (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 3 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Safety and Tolerability Study of Oral NS-018 in Patients With Primary Myelofibrosis (MF), Post-polycythemia Vera MF or Post-essential Thrombocythemia MF NCT01423851 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• A Study Evaluating Tolerability and Efficacy of Navitoclax Alone or in Combination With Ruxolitinib in Participants With Myelofibrosis NCT03222609 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Study of Oral Navitoclax Tablet In Combination With Oral Ruxolitinib Tablet When Compared With Oral Ruxolitinib Tablet To Assess Change In Spleen Volume In Adult Participants With Myelofibrosis NCT04472598 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 70% of active trials completed
• Single-Agent Glasdegib In Patients With Myelofibrosis Previously Treated With Ruxolitinib NCT02226172 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials terminated
• Phase 2 Study in Japanese Patients With Intermediate-2 or High Risk Primary Myelofibrosis, Post-Polycythemia Vera Myelofibrosis, Post-Essential Thrombocythemia Myelofibrosis With Splenomegaly NCT01692366 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 60% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.