Study of Oral Navitoclax Tablet In Combination With Oral Ruxolitinib Tablet When Compared With Oral Ruxolitinib Tablet To Assess Change In Spleen Volume In Adult Participants With Myelofibrosis

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 20% for any early termination, 4% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (927 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-29. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerimagingmyelofibrosisctcell
  Phrases that lowered it: participantstabletparticipanteffect ofthe effect
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 15.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 58.3% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 100 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 18.5% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months: 7554 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 209 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports before start: 36912 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study Evaluating Tolerability and Efficacy of Navitoclax Alone or in Combination With Ruxolitinib in Participants With Myelofibrosis NCT03222609 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability Study of Mivebresib Tablet Alone or in Combination With Ruxolitinib Tablet or Navitoclax Tablet in Adult Participants With Myelofibrosis NCT04480086 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials terminated
• A Study of Momelotinib Versus Danazol in Symptomatic and Anemic Myelofibrosis Participants (MOMENTUM) NCT04173494 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 90% of active trials completed
• Study to Assess Efficacy and Safety of NS-018 Compared to BAT in Patients With Myelofibrosis NCT04854096 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials terminated
• Momelotinib Versus Ruxolitinib in Subjects With Myelofibrosis NCT01969838 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 94% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.