A Study of TAR-200 in Combination With Cetrelimab and Cetrelimab Alone in Participants With Muscle-Invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 19% for any early termination, 6% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 22% of the time (1,598 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2026-03-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: chemotherapytumorpriorsmallrandomization
  Phrases that lowered it: participantsparticipantevaluate the200to evaluate
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 11.3% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 5.6% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 131 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 94.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 524 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Keywords listed: 0 (lowers risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of TAR-200 in Participants With Muscle-Invasive Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder Who Are Ineligible for or Refuse Cisplatin-based Chemotherapy and Who Are Unfit for Radical Cystectomy NCT03404791 · started 2017 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of TAR-200 mg in Subjects With Non-Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02720367 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 72% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of GemRIS 225 mg in Subjects With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT02722538 · started 2016 · scored riskier than 76% of active trials completed
• Neoadjuvant Toripalimab in Combination With Gemcitabine Therapy in Cisplatin Ineligible Local Advanved Bladder Cancer NCT04553939 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 86% of active trials completed
• Safety and Tolerability of TAR-200 and Nivolumab in Subjects With Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer NCT03518320 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.