Laser vs Clobetasol for Lichen Sclerosus
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 13% for any early termination, 8% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 14% of the time (35 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-10-17, after 2021-11-02 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-10-17. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cancerconcurrentassociatedwomen withevidence
Phrases that lowered it: open labeltopicaltrialthe efficacysingle -
Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 51.4% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.8% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
-
Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 4.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
-
Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
-
Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
-
Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
-
Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
-
Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
-
Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
-
Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- treatment
- Blinding
- none
- Has a data monitoring committee
- No (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- principal investigator (typical: sponsor)
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 4 (typical: 1)
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- female (typical: all)
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 37 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 10.8% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 8 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 12370 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 1834 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 51.4% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 4.1% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- dermatology
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- clobetasol
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Clobetasol Propionate Versus Fractionated Carbon Dioxide Laser for the Treatment of Lichen Sclerosus NCT02573883 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 81% of active trials completed
- Does Steroid Plus CO2 Laser Improve Lichen Sclerosus Symptoms Compared to Steroids Alone? NCT05243563 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 50% of active trials terminated
- Progesterone vs Clobetasol Propionate in Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus NCT01126255 · started 2011 · scored riskier than 39% of active trials terminated
- A Study to Evaluate the Efficacy and Safety of Ruxolitinib Cream in Participants With Lichen Sclerosus NCT05593445 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials completed
- Efficacy and Safety of MC2-25 Cream & Vehicle in Women With Vulvar Lichen Sclerosus (VLS) NCT06132919 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 36% of active trials completed
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.