Study of the Safety and Efficacy of MR-100A-01 in Approximately 1200 Healthy Women for up to 13 Cycles

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 7% for any early termination, 1% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (1,463 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-15. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: subjects withsclerosissubjectenrollmentheart
  Phrases that lowered it: vaccineto evaluateand safetyhistory orefficacy and
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 3 (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 16 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Oral Levonorgestrel Plus Meloxicam, IG-002 Delays Ovulation in Normal Menstruating Women by Seven Days NCT05695352 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Multicenter, Non-Comparative Trial on the Contraceptive Efficacy, Safety, and Tolerability of LPRI-424, 13 Cycles NCT03945513 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study of Ovulation in Obese Women NCT06306131 · started 2023 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials completed
• A Dose-finding Study to Evaluate the Effect of a Contraceptive Vaginal Ring, Releasing Nestorone® and Estradiol, on Cycle Control, Ovulation Inhibition, and Pharmacokinetics in Normal Cycling Women NCT01586000 · started 2012 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• Safety, Efficacy, Tolerability and Pharmacokinetics of LF111 (Drospirenone 4.0 mg) During 13 Cycles NCT02269241 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 3% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.