Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Very Low, Low or Intermediate Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes With CA-4948

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 27% for any early termination, 14% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 30% of the time (107 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2024-07-31. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: mdsanemiahepatitisriskmyelodysplastic
  Phrases that lowered it: days beforediseasesclinicaladministration ofopen label
• Phase: 2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 10.9% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Collaborators: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: principal investigator (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 10 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study of Etavopivat for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) NCT05568225 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 79% of active trials terminated
• Extension Study to Evaluate Long-Term Effects of Luspatercept in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) (A536-05/MK-6143-003) NCT02268383 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 67% of active trials completed
• Study of Luspatercept for the Treatment of Anemia in Patients With Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) (MK-6143-001) NCT01749514 · started 2013 · scored riskier than 83% of active trials completed
• Romiplostim Treatment of Thrombocytopenia in Subjects With Low or Intermediate-1 Risk Myelodysplastic Syndrome (MDS) NCT00614523 · started 2008 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
• Phase II Study to Evaluate Overall Response in Patients With Higher Risk Myelodysplastic Syndromes (MDS) Treated With Azacitidine With or Without Deferasirox. NCT02159040 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 96% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.