Effect of Colchicine on the Progression of Aortic Valve Stenosis - A Pilot Study
Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.
Model score 20% for any early termination, 9% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 15% of the time (107 trials).
Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
How it ended
Completed on 2025-01-20, after 2022-07-01 start.
The score above never used this outcome: finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.
Termination over time, as the model saw it at the start
Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-01-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.
From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.
What moved the score
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Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording
Phrases that raised it: cellcarcinomatherapycancergreater
Phrases that lowered it: effect ofthe effectmoderatesingleevaluate the -
Sponsor's past termination rate: 22.7% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
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Primary purpose: prevention (lowers risk) · Design
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Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
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Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 12.8% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Has a data monitoring committee: Yes (raises risk) · Design
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Sponsor type: academic or other (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
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Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
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Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
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Phase: 2/3 (raises risk) · Design
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Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 79.1% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Disease area, cardiovascular: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
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Drug's FAERS reports before start: 20639 (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
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Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
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Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 14 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.
The trial
Design
- Phase
- 2/3 (typical: 2)
- Number of arms
- 2
- Allocation
- randomized
- Design
- parallel
- Primary purpose
- prevention (typical: treatment)
- Blinding
- quadruple (typical: none)
- Has a data monitoring committee
- Yes (typical: 56% yes)
- Responsible party
- sponsor
- Collaborators
- 0
- Keywords listed
- 1
Who can join
- Minimum age
- 18
- Maximum age
- not given (typical: 71)
- Sex
- all
- Accepts healthy volunteers
- No (typical: 9% yes)
Sponsor's track record
- Sponsor type
- academic or other
- Sponsor's past trials
- 75 (typical: 32)
- Sponsor's past termination rate
- 22.7% (typical: 9.9%)
- Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years
- 14 (typical: 19)
Drug's FDA history
- Drugs with FDA adverse-event history
- 1
- Drug has FAERS history
- Yes (typical: 64% yes)
- Drug's FAERS reports before start
- 20639 (typical: 2148)
- Drug's FAERS reports in the prior 12 months
- 2093 (typical: 412.5)
- Drug's FAERS reports marked serious
- 79.1% (typical: 85.6%)
- Drug's FAERS reports with a death
- 12.8% (typical: 15.9%)
Disease area and drugs
- Disease areas
- cardiovascular
- Drugs matched to FDA substances
- colchicine
Typical values are among the trials active now. Sponsor and drug history are counted only up to this trial's start date.
Similar finished trials
- Colchicine in Vascular Inflammation Assessed With PET Imaging NCT02162303 · started 2014 · scored riskier than 92% of active trials completed
- Colchicine for Patients With Aortic Stenosis Undergoing Transcatheter Aortic Valve Replacement NCT04870424 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 47% of active trials completed
- Inflammation REduction to Prevent cArdiovascular Injury in Renal Disease (REPAIR) NCT06203977 · started 2024 · scored riskier than 56% of active trials completed
- Colchicine Cardiovascular Outcomes Trial (COLCOT) NCT02551094 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 89% of active trials completed
- Colchicine in HFpEF NCT04857931 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 75% of active trials terminated
Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.