A Crossover Bioequivalence Study of Olaparib Tablets, 150 mg (Lek Pharmaceuticals d.d.) and Lynparza® (Olaparib) Tablets 150 mg (AstraZeneca Pharmaceuticals LP), in Patients With Breast Cancer Gene (BRCA) Mutated Ovarian Cancer, Recurrent Ovarian Cancer or Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 8% for any early termination, 2% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 16% of the time (1,938 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2022-10-20. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Design: crossover (lowers risk) · Design
• Phase: 1 (lowers risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Primary purpose: other (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 5.7% (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 31.4% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancerchemotherapyadvancedpatientmetastatic
  Phrases that lowered it: crossoverfemalemoderatebioequivalencekg
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 5 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Maximum age: 85 (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past trials: 105 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Sex: female (raises risk) · Who can join

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• HOPE: Olaparib, Palbociclib and Fulvestrant in Patients With BRCA Mutation-associated, HR+, HER2-metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03685331 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 73% of active trials completed
• To Study Clinical Effectiveness and Safety of Olaparib Monotherapy in Metastatic Breast Cancer Patients. NCT03286842 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 35% of active trials completed
• Phase I of Carboplatin-Olaparib Followed by Olaparib Monotherapy in Advanced Cancer NCT02418624 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 66% of active trials completed
• Olaparib Tablets Maintenance Monotherapy Ovarian Cancer Patients After Complete or Partial Response to Platinum Chemotherapy NCT03534453 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 33% of active trials completed
• A Phase I, Open-Label, 2 Part Multicentre Study to Assess the Safety and Efficacy of Olaparib in Combination With Carboplatin in Patients With Advanced HER-2 Negative Breast Cancer NCT02561832 · started 2015 · scored riskier than 32% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.