A Single-ascending Dose (Part A) and Repeat-dose (Part B) Study to Investigate the Safety, Pharmacokinetics and Efficacy (Part B Only) of UCB1381 in Healthy Study Participants (Part A) and in Study Participants With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis (Part B)

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 5% for any early termination, 0% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 10% of the time (41 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2025-09-19. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (lowers risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: ascendingintravenousplacebodiseasebowel
  Phrases that lowered it: healthyand safetyefficacy andparticipantparticipants
• Accepts healthy volunteers: Yes (lowers risk) · Who can join
• Sponsor's past termination rate: 24.1% (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Design: parallel (raises risk) · Design
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 34 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Blinding: quadruple (lowers risk) · Design
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Disease area, cancer: No (lowers risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Sponsor's past trials: 29 (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Number of arms: 12 (lowers risk) · Design
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: no FAERS history (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Disease area, neurology: No (lowers risk) · Disease area

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• A Study to Test the Safety, Pharmacokinetics, and Efficacy of UCB9741 in Healthy Study Participants and in Study Participants With Atopic Dermatitis NCT04643457 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 6% of active trials completed
• A STUDY TO EVALUATE THE SAFETY, TOLERABILITY, PHARMACOKINETICS, AND PHARMACODYNAMICS OF MULTIPLE SUBCUTANEOUS INJECTIONS OF SHR-1819 IN PATIENTS WITH MODERATE TO SEVERE ATOPIC DERMATITIS NCT05197023 · started 2022 · scored riskier than 8% of active trials completed
• A Study of Baricitinib (LY3009104) in Participants With Moderate to Severe Atopic Dermatitis NCT03559270 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 19% of active trials terminated
• Effect of Benralizumab in Atopic Dermatitis NCT03563066 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 22% of active trials completed
• A Study to Evaluate Safety, Tolerability, Pharmacokinetics, and Pharmacodynamics of UCB8600 in Healthy Participants, Atopic Participants, and Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria Participants NCT04444466 · started 2020 · scored riskier than 4% of active trials terminated

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.