Study of Elacestrant in Combination With Onapristone in Patients With Advanced or Metastatic Breast Cancer

Model scores of the 29,894 trials active now.

Model score 28% for any early termination, 7% for termination due to slow enrollment. Past trials like this one (phase, sponsor type and disease area, started 2008–2016) ended terminated 29% of the time (655 trials).

Finished trial that started in 2015 or later: the model never saw it during training.

Cumulative chance of ending terminated (red) or completed (green) by each year from its start; it actually ended on 2023-06-23. The rest of the way to 100% is still running.

From the competing-risks survival model (termination vs completion, still-running trials censored), fit to trials that started 2008–2014 and recalibrated to termination rates over 2022–2024, since termination has become more common. Checked on past years, it still ran a little low when the rise continued.

• Wording of the registration (title, summary, criteria) (raises risk) · Wording Phrases that raised it: cancermetastaticpatient hasher2therapy
  Phrases that lowered it: aminotransferasetrialweeks beforemalewith advanced
• Phase: 1/2 (raises risk) · Design
• Accepts healthy volunteers: No (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, cancer: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Sponsor's past termination rate: no earlier finished trials (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Trials the sponsor started in the prior 2 years: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Design: single group (raises risk) · Design
• Sponsor type: industry (lowers risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Number of arms: 1 (raises risk) · Design
• Primary purpose: treatment (raises risk) · Design
• Minimum age: 18 (raises risk) · Who can join
• Disease area, dermatology: Yes (raises risk) · Disease area
• Maximum age: not given (raises risk) · Who can join
• Has a data monitoring committee: No (lowers risk) · Design
• Sponsor's past trials: 0 (raises risk) · Sponsor's track record
• Drug's FAERS reports with a death: 0% (lowers risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Drug's FAERS reports marked serious: 100% (raises risk) · Drug's FDA history
• Collaborators: 0 (raises risk) · Design
• Responsible party: sponsor (lowers risk) · Design
• Blinding: none (raises risk) · Design

Every input that moved this score, largest first: SHAP contributions in log-odds, red raising risk and green lowering it. They describe the model, not causes of termination. Phrases are traced from the text features back to this registration's words, approximately.

• Olaparib+Trastuzumab in HER2[+],Breast Cancer Susceptibility Gene (BRCA) Mutated Advanced Breast Cancer NCT03931551 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 71% of active trials terminated
• Alpelisib and Enzalutamide in Treating Patients With Androgen Receptor and PTEN Positive Metastatic Breast Cancer NCT03207529 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 78% of active trials completed
• AMTEC IIT: Phase 2 Multiarm Study in TNBC NCT03801369 · started 2018 · scored riskier than 68% of active trials terminated
• Onapristone and Fulvestrant for ER+ HER2- Metastatic Breast Cancer After Endocrine Therapy and CDK4/6 Inhibitors (The SMILE Study) NCT04738292 · started 2021 · scored riskier than 97% of active trials terminated
• Phase I Study of BEBT-209 in Women With Advanced Breast Cancer NCT06047184 · started 2019 · scored riskier than 28% of active trials completed

Closest by meaning of the registration text (PubMedBERT embeddings), among finished trials. How they ended is context, not an input to this trial's score.